July 2026 market snapshot
Prices softened while transactions accelerated
Sources: SRX July 2026 HDB Resale Flash Report; 99.co analysis for the overall median. July index and volume figures are flash estimates.
Singapore’s HDB resale market appears to be telling two conflicting stories.
HDB’s final second-quarter data showed its official Resale Price Index falling 0.3 per cent from the previous quarter. SRX’s subsequent July flash estimate indicated another 0.7 per cent monthly decline, even as 2,660 resale flats changed hands—the highest monthly volume recorded so far in 2026.
Of those July transactions, 187 were completed at $1 million or more. The most expensive was a five-room flat at Block 273B Bishan Street 24 in the Natura Loft DBSS development, which sold for $1.58 million.
This article is for the Singapore household deciding whether to buy or sell an HDB resale flat in the next six to 12 months.
Our view: the broader resale market is cooling, but the most desirable flats are behaving like a scarce sub-market of their own. That distinction matters more than the headline average.
1. The price decline is real—but it is not a crash
The July fall was broad-based in SRX’s flash estimate. Mature estates declined more sharply than non-mature estates, while every flat type recorded a monthly drop.
| Segment | July 2026 price change |
|---|---|
| All resale flats | -0.7% |
| Mature estates | -1.7% |
| Non-mature estates | -0.3% |
| 3-room flats | -0.4% |
| 4-room flats | -0.9% |
| 5-room flats | -1.1% |
| Executive flats | -1.5% |
One month does not establish a long-term trend. But Q2 was the second consecutive decline in HDB’s official index, following a 0.1 per cent fall in Q1. It was the first back-to-back quarterly decline since the four-quarter slide from Q3 2018 to Q2 2019. SRX also estimated July prices were 0.7 per cent lower than a year earlier. Together, these readings are stronger evidence that the rapid price growth of earlier years has lost momentum.
So what for you? If you are buying, you no longer need to treat every asking price as a moving target. If you are selling, yesterday’s record in your block is evidence—not an automatic valuation for your flat.
2. More flats are selling because buyers and sellers are finding a price
July volume rose 24.5 per cent from June and 3.1 per cent from July 2025. That is not what a frozen market looks like, although the monthly jump needs context.
| July 2026 indicator | Result |
|---|---|
| Resale transactions | 2,660 |
| Change from June 2026 | +24.5% |
| Change from July 2025 | +3.1% |
| Million-dollar transactions | 187 |
| Million-dollar share of volume | 7.0% |
| Overall median resale price | $635,000 |
The combination of softer prices and stronger volume suggests that more sellers accepted what buyers were prepared to pay. But the 24.5 per cent jump came off June’s lower base. 99.co’s chief data and analytics officer said some buyers may have waited for June BTO ballot results, while school-holiday travel may also have delayed viewings and decisions. That makes July partly a normalisation of delayed activity, not necessarily a sudden surge in underlying demand.
Four-room flats remained the centre of the resale market, accounting for 45.1 per cent of July transactions. Five-room flats made up 26.3 per cent, three-room flats 22.5 per cent and executive flats 6.1 per cent.
So what for you? A busier market does not necessarily mean prices are climbing. Buyers should compare completed transactions, while sellers who price close to current evidence are more likely to secure a deal.
3. The million-dollar segment is not the typical HDB market
The 187 million-dollar sales are attention-grabbing, but they represented 7 per cent of July transactions. The other 93 per cent completed below $1 million, and the overall median resale price was $635,000.
July’s million-dollar tally was also one transaction below June’s record 188. That makes the premium segment consistently elevated rather than uniquely hotter in July.
The premium deals were also unevenly distributed. Queenstown recorded 32, Toa Payoh 28 and Bukit Merah 20. The remaining 107 were spread across other towns. These flats often combine attributes that cannot be reproduced quickly: centrality, size, height, views, newer leases or uncommon layouts.
The $1.58 million transaction at Block 273B Natura Loft is therefore a useful description of what one buyer paid for one scarce property. It is not a benchmark for the average five-room flat in Singapore—or even every five-room flat in Bishan.
So what for you? Do not let an exceptional sale anchor your budget or asking price unless your flat genuinely shares its town, lease, floor, size and attributes.
4. The market is splitting by scarcity
National averages compress many different markets into one number. A standard flat with several close substitutes competes mainly on price and condition. A rare flat near an MRT station, established school or city-fringe hub may attract several buyers who have few comparable alternatives.
This is why falling averages and million-dollar records can coexist. The median part of the market is becoming more price-sensitive while a smaller scarcity segment can still produce aggressive bids.
That does not mean premium prices are risk-free. Remaining lease, financing limits, valuation gaps and future buyer demand still matter. Scarcity can support a price; it cannot suspend affordability.
So what for you? Decide first whether the flat is replaceable. If three comparable homes are available, negotiate. If it is genuinely rare, decide your walk-away price before emotion turns scarcity into overpayment.
5. Will the removal of the 15-month wait-out push prices up again?
From 27 July 2026, private residential property owners and former owners no longer need to observe the 15-month wait-out period before buying a non-subsidised HDB resale flat without an HDB loan. The change could return some cash-rich downsizers to the resale market sooner.
The financing condition is important. The removal does not give former private-property owners immediate access to an HDB housing loan. Applicants seeking an HDB loan remain subject to HDB’s separate private-property eligibility rules, which generally require the property to have been disposed of at least 30 months before the HFE application. Buyers should confirm their own grant and loan position through an HFE letter before committing.
But it is too early to attribute July’s price or volume movement to the policy. It took effect near the end of the month, and its eventual impact will depend on how many eligible households buy, where they buy and what they can afford.
The likely pressure, if it appears, would be concentrated rather than universal: larger, well-located and move-in-ready flats are the natural targets for private-property downsizers.
So what for you? If you are pursuing a large premium flat, watch competition over the next few months. If you are shopping for a conventional unit in a non-mature estate, do not assume the policy automatically raises your market.
6. What buyers should do now
Start with transactions from the same block or nearby blocks, then adjust for floor, remaining lease, size, condition and distance to transport. Treat the bank or HDB valuation as a financing constraint, not a promise that the asking price is fair.
Set two limits: the maximum price you can finance comfortably and the maximum cash-over-valuation you are willing to absorb. They are not always the same number.
Most importantly, compare alternatives before negotiating. Your strongest defence against overpaying is knowing which other flats would still meet your family’s needs.
So what for you? A softer market gives you room to be selective, but not permission to ignore quality. Pay for attributes your household will use—not for a headline you hope the next buyer will repeat.
7. What sellers should do now
Use recent completed transactions, not listings, as the core of your pricing decision. An ambitious asking price can still work for a rare unit, but an ordinary flat needs a clear reason to command an extraordinary premium.
If viewings are frequent but offers are absent, the market is usually challenging the price. If viewings are scarce, presentation, reach or the asking price may be preventing buyers from entering the conversation.
So what for you? Price to create competition, not merely to leave bargaining room. In a price-sensitive market, an inflated opening number can cost more time than it creates value.
8. The SGroar view
The apparent contradiction disappears once the resale market is separated into two layers. The broad market is cooling and becoming more negotiable. A smaller premium market remains capable of record deals because genuinely scarce flats attract buyers with fewer substitutes.
| If you are… | Focus on | Avoid |
|---|---|---|
| A first-time buyer | Monthly affordability and comparable transactions | Stretching for a trophy flat because prices may rebound |
| A family upgrading within HDB | Net cash needed after selling and buying | Assuming your sale and purchase will move in lockstep |
| A private-property downsizer | Lease, location and financing eligibility | Treating every large flat as equally scarce |
| A seller | Recent completed deals and buyer feedback | Using a record sale as your only benchmark |
Our advice is simple: negotiate the average flat and appraise the rare flat. Do not confuse one with the other.
So what for you? Whether buying or selling in the next six to 12 months, your decision should be based on the flat’s own competitive set—not the loudest national headline.
Also on SGroar: HDB BTO Guide: How the Ballot Works — a complete guide to eligibility, the ballot system, grants and what the 5-year MOP actually means. | October 2026 BTO Preview — compare Bayshore, Caldecott and the heartland projects if you are planning to apply.
Data note: HDB’s Resale Price Index is the official quarterly measure. July figures are SRX flash estimates and may be revised. Transaction counts and segment changes cited here are from the SRX July 2026 HDB Resale Flash Report. Policy details should be checked against HDB’s official announcements.
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