THE COE SUPPLY PIPELINE
How deregistrations become a future quota
If the 8,000 quarter drops out and a new 16,000 quarter enters, the average becomes 13,000—not 16,000. The supply effect is smoothed.
If you are shopping for your first car in Singapore, the sales conversation can make COE bidding sound like a game of timing: wait for the right exercise, watch the live price and hope your dealer submits a clever bid.
That is a misleading way to think about it.
COE prices emerge from two separate systems. First, the Land Transport Authority decides the COE quota—how many certificates will be offered. Then buyers and motor dealers compete for that limited supply by submitting confidential maximum prices.
The first system controls scarcity. The second discovers what buyers will pay for it.
| Moving part | Who determines it? | What you should examine |
|---|---|---|
| COE supply | LTA’s quarterly COE quota | Deregistrations, policy adjustments and additional injections |
| Bidding demand | Buyers and motor dealers | Bid participation and, more importantly, reserve prices |
A larger quota can reduce scarcity, but it does not guarantee a lower price. If buyers become willing to pay more, the premium can still rise. A smaller quota does not automatically guarantee a spike either; demand may weaken at the same time.
So what for you? Before acting on a confident COE forecast, ask whether it explains both the coming supply and buyers’ willingness to pay.
The COE quota starts with vehicles leaving the road
The main source of new COEs is vehicle deregistration. But LTA does not simply release one certificate next month for every vehicle deregistered this month.
Since February 2023, each quarter’s replacement supply has been based on the rolling average of deregistrations over the previous four quarters. This is mathematically equivalent to taking 25 per cent of eligible replacement COEs from the preceding 12 months:
| Quarter | Hypothetical eligible replacements |
|---|---|
| Q1 | 8,000 |
| Q2 | 10,000 |
| Q3 | 12,000 |
| Q4 | 14,000 |
| Four-quarter total | 44,000 |
| Quarterly average | 11,000 |
If the next quarter records 16,000 eligible replacements, Q1 drops out and the new quarter enters. The average becomes 13,000—not 16,000.
This smoothing matters. A deregistration wave influences several quota periods rather than arriving in one sudden block. A vehicle merely reaching its 10-year expiry also does not necessarily leave the population: its owner may renew the COE.
So what for you? Do not convert a headline about “cars reaching 10 years” into an immediate bidding prediction. Expiry is not the same as deregistration, and deregistrations enter a rolling calculation.
Replacement is only the starting point
The published quota may include several additions, deductions and reallocations.
| Component | How it affects the COE quota |
|---|---|
| Replacement COEs | Returns capacity arising from eligible deregistrations |
| Category C growth provision | Allows 0.25 per cent annual growth based on the relevant vehicle population |
| Taxi adjustments | Accounts for changes in the taxi fleet |
| Expired Temporary COEs | Returns certain unused entitlements to the pool |
| Early Turnover Scheme | Accounts for commercial vehicles replaced under the scheme |
| Guaranteed deregistrations | Brings forward known supply from identified five-year, non-extendable COEs |
| Additional injections | Adds supply as a policy measure |
The guaranteed-deregistration mechanism is especially easy to misunderstand. LTA can identify vehicles with five-year, non-extendable COEs and bring their known future replacement supply forward from a projected peak into an earlier trough. When those vehicles are eventually deregistered, their quota is not returned again. Otherwise, the same entitlement would be counted twice.
This changes the timing of supply; it does not create permanent vehicle-population growth.
For August to October 2026, LTA announced an overall quota of 19,085 COEs, 0.2 per cent more than in the preceding three-month period.
So what for you? Read the category-level quota announcement rather than a headline saying supply is merely “up” or “down”. Supply brought forward from a future peak is not the same as permanent growth.
Your reserve price is a ceiling
During an exercise, a bidder submits a reserve price: the maximum amount the bidder is prepared to pay.
That reserve price is fixed and confidential. It changes only if the bidder actively revises it upward. As the public Current COE Price rises, the system keeps an eligible bid in contention in $1 increments, up to that ceiling.
The Current COE Price is defined as the highest unsuccessful bid plus $1. At closing, it becomes the Quota Premium. Every successful bidder in that category pays the same premium.
Assume five buyers compete for three COEs:
| Bidder | Reserve price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| A | $100,000 | Successful |
| B | $92,000 | Successful |
| C | $81,000 | Successful |
| Quota cutoff | ||
| D | $75,000 | Highest unsuccessful bid |
| E | $60,000 | Unsuccessful |
The clearing price is $75,001. Bidders A, B and C each pay that amount—not their individual maximums.
This also explains why a $1 million reserve price does not single-handedly make everybody pay $1 million. The price is determined around the boundary between winners and losers. Broad pressure comes from many bidders competing near that cutoff.
So what for you? Decide your true walk-away price before the exercise. A high reserve may protect your place, but it also gives permission to commit you if the market clears at a painful level.
Why prices can jump near 4pm
The live price may move slowly and then surge close to the Wednesday deadline. The clock itself does not impose a premium. The cutoff moves because bidders and dealers revise reserve prices after being out-bid or after assessing the late market.
You can see the Current COE Price, but not how much confidential headroom remains inside accepted bids. Waiting until the final minutes therefore does not create a guaranteed bargain.
There are normally two exercises a month, beginning on the first and third Monday. This calendar can produce a three-week interval between some exercises; public holidays can also change the timetable.
So what for you? Do not set your budget by watching the price five minutes before closing. Set it according to what the car is worth to you and what you can afford if the bid succeeds.
“Accepted” does not mean “won”
An accepted bid is only still in the running. If the Current COE Price rises above its reserve price, it becomes out-bid unless revised upward before closing.
For individuals, one bid may be submitted per exercise using the bidder’s own identity and bank account. Companies may submit multiple bids.
| Category | Current bid deposit |
|---|---|
| A, B, C and E | $10,000 |
| D | $1,500 |
According to LTA’s published bidding guidance, an unsuccessful bidder’s deposit is refunded to the bank account one working day after results are announced, after applicable administration fees have been deducted.
Tied bids can also leave quota unused. If accepting everyone at the same cutoff price would exceed the quota, the system does not arbitrarily choose among identical bids. The unused entitlement is carried forward to the corresponding exercise in the following month.
So what for you? If your dealer says the bid is “accepted”, do not treat that as a confirmed COE. Ask for the reserve price, current status and contractual consequences if the final premium rises.
Dealer bidding changes the decision you face
Most first-time buyers do not bid personally. They sign a vehicle package and let the dealer handle the exercise.
That convenience can conceal the real question: who bears the risk if COE rises?
Before signing, ask the dealer to answer these questions in writing:
- Is the COE genuinely guaranteed?
- How many bidding exercises are included?
- What reserve price may the dealer submit?
- Is there a COE rebate or top-up clause?
- Can the vehicle price change before registration?
- What happens if no COE is secured?
- In whose name is the bid submitted?
Two packages with the same advertised price can allocate the risk very differently.
So what for you? Compare contracts, not slogans. “Guaranteed COE” is useful only when you understand the conditions, exclusions, delivery period and price-adjustment clauses.
COE price and PQP are different numbers
The Quota Premium is the clearing price from one bidding exercise. The Prevailing Quota Premium, or PQP, is used to renew an existing COE without bidding and is the moving average of Quota Premiums in the last three months. Months with no bidding are excluded.
If a vehicle was originally registered using Category E, it can still be renewed. The renewal is made under the category that corresponds to the vehicle itself: a car renews under Category A or B according to the applicable engine-capacity and maximum-power rules, while a goods vehicle or bus renews under Category C. The renewal uses that corresponding category’s PQP.
So what for you? If you are comparing a new car with renewing an existing one, compare the actual PQP and the vehicle’s condition with the complete cost of both options—not merely the latest Category A or B result.
Set three numbers before visiting the showroom
You cannot control the quota or other bidders. You can control the point at which owning this car no longer makes sense.
| Your number | What it means |
|---|---|
| Comfortable price | A purchase and monthly cost you can absorb without straining other goals |
| Maximum price | Your absolute walk-away point after financing and ownership costs |
| Alternative cost | The cost of waiting, buying used, renewing or not owning a car |
Include loan interest, insurance, road tax, parking, fuel or charging, servicing, repairs and usage charges. A monthly instalment is not a complete affordability test.
Nobody can reliably predict the next result because reserve prices are confidential and demand can change faster than published supply.
So what for you? Buy when the car solves a genuine need and its total cost sits comfortably below your walk-away point. Do not let an auction designed to reveal scarcity define your personal affordability.
The SGroar view
COE bidding is a uniform-price auction operating on a supply set by public policy. LTA calculates the COE quota from a four-quarter rolling average of eligible deregistrations and applicable adjustments. Bidders then submit confidential reserve prices, while the highest unsuccessful bid plus $1 determines what all winners pay.
Three conclusions follow:
- A larger quota helps supply but does not guarantee a lower result.
- Your reserve price is permission to spend, not a harmless expression of interest.
- No dealer, commentator or spreadsheet can see the distribution of confidential bids well enough to promise the next price.
Follow LTA’s announcements. Read the bidding results. Question dealer-package assumptions. But decide using a personal ceiling based on the full cost of ownership.
The system decides the market price of a COE. It should not decide what you can afford.
Policy information is current as at 22 August 2026. Primary references: LTA’s COE guide, August–October 2026 COE quota announcement, and LTA’s four-quarter quota methodology. Check LTA and OneMotoring before bidding or signing a vehicle-purchase agreement.
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